Objective
The client, considering a major LNG infrastructure investment in the Philippines, required a long-term demand forecast to evaluate project viability and support due diligence. The objective was to project LNG demand over a 30-year horizon, capturing the evolving dynamics of the country’s power sector, fuel competitiveness, and policy environment.
Our approach
Power Market Dispatch Model: We designed a linear programming (LP)-based model to simulate the Philippine power system with high temporal and spatial resolution. The model forecasted hourly electricity generation, fuel mix evolution, and inter-regional power flows.
Scenario Development: Multiple fuel pricing trajectories (including coal, LNG, and renewables) were integrated alongside assumptions on carbon pricing, demand growth, and renewable capacity additions.
Operational & Technical Constraints: Plant-level details—such as heat rates, efficiency curves, maintenance schedules, and ramping limits—were included to ensure realistic dispatch outcomes. Transmission system capacity expansions and congestion risks were also modelled.
Resource & Policy Considerations: Renewable resource availability (solar, wind, hydro), policy-driven capacity targets, and grid development plans were factored into the simulations, aligning forecasts with national energy transition goals.
Granular Forecasting: The model generated demand curves across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons, highlighting seasonal variability, peak demand periods, and LNG’s role in balancing renewable intermittency.
Impact
The analysis delivered:
Robust LNG Demand Forecasts: A 30-year outlook under multiple fuel, policy, and demand scenarios, providing clarity on LNG’s role in the Philippine energy mix.
Investment Valuation Support: Data-driven insights enabled accurate valuation of LNG terminal, storage, and regasification assets.
Negotiation Advantage: Scenario-based outputs strengthened the client’s position in discussions with regulators, suppliers, and financiers by demonstrating thorough due diligence and market understanding.
Strategic Guidance: Clear visibility into risks, sensitivities, and opportunities allowed the client to align investment strategy with long-term market realities and policy directions.
This comprehensive modelling framework not only informed the client’s immediate investment decision but also established a strategic lens for future energy planning in Southeast Asia.
